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Ericsson’s 2019 annual report seems to have confirmed what many people suspect – that 5G deployment in India will be delayed due to spectrum allocation-related constraints in the market.

While growth in subscriptions, smartphone penetration, and data consumption in India seem to be strong, operators are challenged by intense competition and the cost of managing increased data traffic, according to the report. But 5G probably won’t step into the breach for some while.

“Spectrum allocation constraints mean that the majority of 5G deployments across South East Asia and India are a few years away,” the report says.

The Indian government plans the next spectrum auction (for both 4G and 5G) early next year. Operators have argued that spectrum is overpriced but Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) chairman RS Sharma recently argued that the 5G base price was recommended after industry feedback.

LTE subscriptions seem to indicate an interest in next generation mobile services in India. By the end of 2019, LTE accounted for 48 percent of total mobile subscriptions; the share of 2G subscriptions was 41 percent, Ericsson said.

However, a point that may not have been addressed in the report seems to be whether, after their problems with AGR dues and a highly competitive environment where ARPU has been squeezed, operators are ready for 5G – not only the expense of bidding for 5G spectrum but the cost of actually rolling out and marketing the technology.

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